01 RETAIL & E-COMMERCE · AI COMMERCE INDEX

AI E-commerce Dashboard

AI-referred traffic is up 18×, conversion has risen sharply, and AI is becoming the fastest-growing revenue channel.

01Traffic Growth

+1,772%

AI-referred traffic to retail sites, cumulative growth since Oct 2024

Adobe, 2026-09 · 1T+ visits to US sites tracked

02Conversion Lift

+90%

conversion-rate premium of AI-referred over non-AI traffic

Adobe, 2026-09 · 9% lower in Aug 2025

03Purchase Rate

27%

of US consumers have bought through a link provided by AI

Adobe consumer survey, n=5,000+, 2026-03

04AI-Influenced GMV

$262B

global online holiday sales influenced by AI in 2025 (20% of total)

Salesforce, 2026-01

05Conversion Trend

AI traffic went from converting 38% worse to 90% better in 18 months

Conversion rate of AI-referred vs. non-AI retail traffic · Adobe Digital Insights

06Sector Ranking

Retail is the fastest-growing sector

YoY growth in AI-referred traffic, 2025 holiday season · Adobe (published 2026-01)

        Retail ranks first at +693%, 1.3× the runner-up, travel (+539%); financial services +266%, tech / software +120% and media / entertainment +92%. Retail’s momentum is clearly ahead of every other sector.
      

55%

of respondents use generative AI for shopping, second only to general research and ahead of writing and codingThe Economist, n=1,924

43%

of Gen Z shop with AI, versus 18% of Baby Boomers — the younger the shopper, the higher the adoptionIpsos, 15 countries, n=8,500, 2026

+60%

lift in purchase completion when shoppers use a commerce agent, with baskets up to 35% largerAnthropic, 2026-09 · company-reported

May 2025

Visa, Google, OpenAI, Mastercard and Stripe have all launched agentic payments. The infrastructure took shape in 14 monthsCompany announcements

02 PAGE 02 · DEMAND DEPTH

The market open to AI shopping is 2–3× today’s users

07Task Ladder

Every shopping task has more would-be users than current ones

Dark = already use, light = would consider · Ipsos Market Essentials, 15 countries, n=8,500, 2026-02 to 2026-04

Already use Would consider

08Generational Shift

AI adoption is highest among younger shoppers

Share of consumers who shop with AI · Ipsos, 15 countries, n=8,500, 2026

09Entry-Point Diversification

ChatGPT’s share is falling as Gemini and Claude gain

Share of global generative-AI web traffic · Similarweb

2025-06 2026-09

10Market Expansion

The overall market is still expanding

Global e-commerce base market (US$ trillion) · Morgan Stanley estimate

Agentic commerce could expand total e-commerce by about 6% and materially affect about 20% of global e-commerce volume, lifting annual growth from about 7% to 9%.Paraphrased

11Supply Gap

Demand is here, but retailers are not ready

2026 holiday season · Narvar, “Delivering the 2026 Holiday Shopping Season”

        65% of consumers plan to use AI at some point in their holiday shopping, but only 8% of retailers are “very confident” in using AI to improve the experience: an 8× gap. The same survey shows two more gaps in the same direction: 51% of consumers value hassle-free returns, but only 24% of retailers are investing in them; 58% of consumers plan to start shopping early, but 77% of retailers have not responded.
      

12Budget Reallocation NEW

AI visibility is becoming a standard brand metric

Budgets are shifting from traditional channels and programs to AI · Vogue Business, “Meet Fashion’s Newest Engagement Metric: AI Visibility,” Amy O’Brien, 2026-09-09

When AI talks about a brand,

89%

of the content it cites is earned media — press coverage, podcasts, Substack, celebrity and influencer reviews, and organic consumer conversation

Launchmetrics, vendor data

Gartner predicts that within a year

×2

PR budgets will double, with most of the increase coming from SEO / SEM budgets

Gartner prediction, cited by Launchmetrics and reported by Vogue Business

When researching products,

34%

of consumers start with AI, not a search engine

Launchmetrics, vendor data